Even though the current price swing is not related to the long term decline of the demand side in developed countries... the fact that I was bearish at oil 3 months ago
3. The energy consumption of the avg person in developed countries is (contrary to what was expected 10 yrs) going to decline (mostly due to transportation efficiencies related to hybrid/electric cars)
3. Battery technology is going to improve (price and efficiencies) enabling more and more uses of electric power instead of gas.
Of course to be accurate I should mention that I was bearish on the oil companies - not the oil prices...and the stock price of oil companies have dropped much less (just 5%) since when the article was published..
when oil was doing pretty well (at around $95) makes me feel vindicated.
I also find it surprising that most of the discussion in the article is centered around short term issues (like what russia does, what iran does etc). You can even make the case the even the shale oil boom is short term. The only true macro trends are:
1. There will be many more people that consume lots of energy going forward (e.g. china/india becoming developed countries)
2. Oil is going to become increasingly more expensive to get at ( colorary : there is much more oil at higher prices)3. The energy consumption of the avg person in developed countries is (contrary to what was expected 10 yrs) going to decline (mostly due to transportation efficiencies related to hybrid/electric cars)
3. Battery technology is going to improve (price and efficiencies) enabling more and more uses of electric power instead of gas.
Of course to be accurate I should mention that I was bearish on the oil companies - not the oil prices...and the stock price of oil companies have dropped much less (just 5%) since when the article was published..
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