This summer, I think most people people I vacationed with must have thought I was in a generally negative zone... A common theme in arguments and discussions I had with people was that I found myself trying to prove to them that their professions - essentially their life choices, were meaningless, and were soon to become obsolete. We would get there either by starting a discussion about our kids and their career choices or the all too common in my home country complaining about everything that is wrong around goverment.
When my sister was telling me that her job as psychiatrist is changing into something that she would not have ever fallen in love with - as a result of a system that in its attempt to optimize is making sure that a computer-aided-nurse is doing the general assessment a general doctor (still not computer aided) is the air-traffic controller and she is receiving a patient only when he really just needs to be drugged and she just has to put her signature on a prescription unable to attack the complete problem of the patient's well beeing - the problem that she was actually educated for with 12 years of medical studies - that gave her the tools to be a doctor for everything.... I saw that pattern repeated in all developed countries. I saw doctors becoming employees of National Health Systems or managed health care systems, I saw an increasing part of the service they used to provide being done by people with less than a 5-yr long college education, nurses or medical technicians. I saw an increasing part of the decision making being the result of decision support systems. I saw the need for 12 yr of medical education being both questioned and not paid for in the end. I saw the end of the time that being a doctor means a sure way to join the upper middle class.
When I was driving with one of the most well-educated best trained most-into-it limo driver I have ever met I tried to warn him that he needs to find a new profession since I see the profession of taxi drivers disapper - and with that I mean the ability for someone to make good living and support their family by being a taxi driver (and relying in the process in a regulatory environment that somehow restricts licenses to avoid over-supply and keep prices for what is potential a minimum skill profession artificially inflated. (I am sure of the above based on my view that the lyft uberx model - ie the model of part-timers driving normal private cars - taking on a fare - will replace taxi professionals in most countries - even in regulated markets - during the next 2-3 years)
I stopped and talked with the owner of a tourist shop, one of the hundreds lining up in the small streets of the island. We both agreed that the talent and creativity involved in selecting the collection of items in the store and designing the store is needed and is worthwhile and unique... But sitting in the store waiting as a cachier is not and will go away - first replaced with trained amateurs + cameras in stores + trained remote store managers and later with shared "street-mall-provided" cashier and self-checkout kiosks. As the actual fullfilment of the operation would become facilated by repeatable processes and systems the only part that would not would be the store-design/collection selection/pricing and collection layout, with any annual refresh. If all providers of arts and crafts and local products can be found through marketplaces like etsy etc..the actual research for that would become efficient... so would the actual renting of these stores a rental system that is still so closed that nobody knows what everyone else is paying. With an open transparent rent marketplace for the spaces... all that someone would need is some kickstarted/crowdfunding of their idea for a particular artsy store centered around olive-wood products in a greek island. The result of all that is that the value of the store-owner is reduced.. the competition would increase... the store owner in such a store would not be able to carry 70-80% margins but closer to ecommerce like ones. The artists/producers/land-owners/clients would all get a better deal the store owner/operator would be the loser.
Seeing this above I think the pattern is that the remaining professions of the future are
badly paid - good for part time/fill in doing nothing time
- doing things that cannot be automated but require minimal knowledge/domain expertise besides 15-18yrs (12 grades + 3-5yrs of college) of global (non-specialized) education
possibly better paid but will not survive past "singularity-like" times
- people finding ways to automate things
- people finding ways to replacing expensive labor for computer assisted inexpensive labor
decently paid can survive til full-singularity - will be the profession of the future
- people creating unique things - artists of various sorts
- people sharing their experiences - in ways that can be consumed leveraged re-lived by many others
tiny percent don't do this for the money
- scientists finding solutions to truly hard open problems
When my sister was telling me that her job as psychiatrist is changing into something that she would not have ever fallen in love with - as a result of a system that in its attempt to optimize is making sure that a computer-aided-nurse is doing the general assessment a general doctor (still not computer aided) is the air-traffic controller and she is receiving a patient only when he really just needs to be drugged and she just has to put her signature on a prescription unable to attack the complete problem of the patient's well beeing - the problem that she was actually educated for with 12 years of medical studies - that gave her the tools to be a doctor for everything.... I saw that pattern repeated in all developed countries. I saw doctors becoming employees of National Health Systems or managed health care systems, I saw an increasing part of the service they used to provide being done by people with less than a 5-yr long college education, nurses or medical technicians. I saw an increasing part of the decision making being the result of decision support systems. I saw the need for 12 yr of medical education being both questioned and not paid for in the end. I saw the end of the time that being a doctor means a sure way to join the upper middle class.
When I was driving with one of the most well-educated best trained most-into-it limo driver I have ever met I tried to warn him that he needs to find a new profession since I see the profession of taxi drivers disapper - and with that I mean the ability for someone to make good living and support their family by being a taxi driver (and relying in the process in a regulatory environment that somehow restricts licenses to avoid over-supply and keep prices for what is potential a minimum skill profession artificially inflated. (I am sure of the above based on my view that the lyft uberx model - ie the model of part-timers driving normal private cars - taking on a fare - will replace taxi professionals in most countries - even in regulated markets - during the next 2-3 years)
I stopped and talked with the owner of a tourist shop, one of the hundreds lining up in the small streets of the island. We both agreed that the talent and creativity involved in selecting the collection of items in the store and designing the store is needed and is worthwhile and unique... But sitting in the store waiting as a cachier is not and will go away - first replaced with trained amateurs + cameras in stores + trained remote store managers and later with shared "street-mall-provided" cashier and self-checkout kiosks. As the actual fullfilment of the operation would become facilated by repeatable processes and systems the only part that would not would be the store-design/collection selection/pricing and collection layout, with any annual refresh. If all providers of arts and crafts and local products can be found through marketplaces like etsy etc..the actual research for that would become efficient... so would the actual renting of these stores a rental system that is still so closed that nobody knows what everyone else is paying. With an open transparent rent marketplace for the spaces... all that someone would need is some kickstarted/crowdfunding of their idea for a particular artsy store centered around olive-wood products in a greek island. The result of all that is that the value of the store-owner is reduced.. the competition would increase... the store owner in such a store would not be able to carry 70-80% margins but closer to ecommerce like ones. The artists/producers/land-owners/clients would all get a better deal the store owner/operator would be the loser.
Seeing this above I think the pattern is that the remaining professions of the future are
badly paid - good for part time/fill in doing nothing time
- doing things that cannot be automated but require minimal knowledge/domain expertise besides 15-18yrs (12 grades + 3-5yrs of college) of global (non-specialized) education
possibly better paid but will not survive past "singularity-like" times
- people finding ways to automate things
- people finding ways to replacing expensive labor for computer assisted inexpensive labor
decently paid can survive til full-singularity - will be the profession of the future
- people creating unique things - artists of various sorts
- people sharing their experiences - in ways that can be consumed leveraged re-lived by many others
tiny percent don't do this for the money
- scientists finding solutions to truly hard open problems
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